Showing posts with label Erik Bedard. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Erik Bedard. Show all posts

Tuesday, June 16, 2009

Choose your own Pitcher

Coming into the 2009 season the Milwaukee Brewers had three major question marks. Relief Pitching, Starting Pitching and the bench. To be fair, bullpen pitching is a question mark for every team, every year. 2 1/2 months into the season we now know the answer to those question.

The bench was overhauled, bringing in Frank Catalanatto and trading for Jody Gerut. The bullpen has been outstanding, arguably the strongest aspect of the team. And the starting pitching has been sub-par.

Yovanni Gallardo has been outstanding but that's it. Jeff Suppan and Braden Looper have looked like number five starters and Dave Bush just hasn't looked the same since getting nailed by that comebacker in Florida. With Manny Parra's demotion to Triple A it's become clear that a new arm is needed. But who?

Jonathan Sanchez - LHP - Giants - The Giants may be willing to part for a major league bat, but Sanchez hasn't been great this season. His batting average allowed is .240 but he's walked 43 and sports a WHIP of 1.66. This doesn't seem like a good fit since the Brewers would like an impact arm, not another No. 3 or 4 pitcher. Unless the Giants wanted to make a deal involving Bill Hall or maybe a Minor League hitter, this is not something I would expect
to see happen. Likelihood: 10%

Jason Marqu
is - RHP - Rockies - Marquis has been outstanding this year for Colorado, and it's unlikely that the Rockies would consider trading them unless they fall out of by the trade deadline. Marquis is 8-4 with an ERA of 3.77. He's never been a strong finisher, but this would not be a bad fit. The Rockies would want pitching back, which the Brewers don't have a lot of, except for the low minor league levels. Likelihood: 8%

Jeremy Guthre - RHP - Orioles - Although his name hasn't been mentioned in any trade rumors, the Orioles are bad and would be very irresponsible to not listen to offers on Guthrie. At 30, he isn't getting any younger and the O's aren't going to be contending anytime soon. Guthrie hasn't been very good this year, his ERA is 5.52, but pitching in the AL East is tough on any pitcher. A move to the National League could be just what he needs. Likelihood: 20%

Brad Penny - RHP - Red Sox - Boston has a glut of pitching, and they seem content to keep all of them. That said, they are probably listening to offers on Penny, since he will be out of the rotation when John Smoltz starts pitching for the Sox. Penny hasn't been very good this year, averaging less than 6 innings per start. His ERA is also over five. He could be a lot like Guthrie in that moving to the National League would be good for him. With his injury history and inconsistency he doesn't seem like a good fit for the Crew, stranger things have happened though. Likelihood: 1%

Doug Davis - LHP - D'Backs - The D'Backs are one of those teams that think they have a better chance then they do. So trading Davis or Jon Garland may not happen. Doug Davis is an interesting option, he has a career ERA of 4.30 (3.65 this year) and still has a lot of fans in Milwaukee. That said he will walk a lot of batters, and the D'Backs would probably have a high price for him. Likelihood: 15%.

Jon Garland - RHP - D'Backs - Garland has been a workhorse throughout his career, pitching over 190 innings in each of his last seven season. This year is his first in the National League and it's been uninspiring, his ERA is 5.45 and he's walked 33 while striking out 30. You could make excuses for his play, hitters ballparks, new league, but they're exactly that... excuses. Garland could have been had for a reasonable amount in the offseason and since the Brewers didn't sign him then I see no reason why they would trade for him now. Likelihood: 1%

Jarrod Washburn - LHP - Mariners - A Wisconsin native, Washburn is in the last year of his contract with Seattle. The Brewers had some interest in him when he signed his current deal, but it was a little to rich for their tastes. Now, it's a different story. This is a very good fit for Milwaukee. Washburn is having a very good year, with a 1.22 WHIP and an ERA of 3.30. Being 34 the asking price shouldn't be too high. Much like Davis, Washburn would provide a veteran lefty in a rotation that features no left-handed pitching. Likelihood: 60%

Erik Bedard - LHP - Mariners - One thing you know about trading with the Mariners is that there will be no fleecing of either team. Bedard has been impressive so far this year, with an ERA of 2.47. He has 65 strikeouts against just 22 walks and has managed to win five games on a very bad team. Any deal for Bedard would almost certainly have to include a shortstop, either J.J. Hardy or Alcides Escobar. Trading Hardy and a prospect for Bedard makes sense for both teams. The Mariners are looking for a Shortstop and Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik would not undervalue Hardy. Likelihood: 50%

We know the Brewers GM Doug Melvin is not averse to trading fan favorites, in fact he had a reputation for it early in his tenure (Richie Sexson, Scott Podsednik, Lyle Overbay, Carlos Lee), so dealing J.J. Hardy would not be out of the question, but will it happen during this season? Alcides Escobar has been tearing up Triple A, hitting .306 in May and .353 in June. Bedard would be nice, but Washburn is probably more likely.

Wednesday, June 3, 2009

Brewer's Rumor Mill - Erik Bedard Edition

While the Jake Peavy talk is certainly not going to die down any time soon, I did my bit on that. I then left you with an idea on someone else to possibly look for - Erik Bedard.

A lot of people around Milwaukee have been talking about why fix what isn't broke. "The starting pitching is pitching great". Well, after last night's game against the Marlins, the buzz around the forums and message boards seem to be picking up in regards to making a move for a starting pitcher. Manny Parra dazzled us in the first inning with his (going to go all Bostonian on you) 'wicked stuff' by striking out the side. He got shelled the next 3 innings, but it appears that it is all in his head, certainly with "stuff" as good as his, he would still make for a valuable trading piece.

The Mariners, who are possibly looking to ship off Erik Bedard and Jarrod Washburn for some younger prospects/players, might be the type of candidate who would gladly take a Manny Parra type of pitcher. A guy they can work with and could potentially become lights out for them in just a year or two's time.

Bedard has a 50-40 career record, while that doesn't sound that great, think about the teams he has pitched for, woeful Baltimore and Seattle teams. His career ERA is respectable at 3.7, but he seems to be pitching this year (2.37 ERA) more like his 2007 season (3.16 ERA). In 2008 (3.67 ERA) he only started 15 games due to injuries. For the record, Peavy's career ERA is 3.29, and much of that can be contributed to PETCO Park.

Aside from his solid numbers and Ace like "stuff", AL pitchers generally thrive on NL lineups. One reason for Peavy's refusal to go to the White Sox is because he wanted to stay in NL, the lineups in the AL are non-stop, you have to pitch your best stuff to batter 1-9, as opposed to pitching the bottom of the order differently in the NL.

Of course then if Bedard was to become a Brewer, the Brewers essentially have five guys they can depend to keep them in the game and get through 5-7 innings. Of course there are the occasional blowup games, but the overall reliability does wonders for the bullpen and also for the psyche of the batters who will always feel like they are going to be in the game every day.

Aside from maybe Parra, what would be the overall cost? Bedard is scheduled to be a free agent after this year, and will likely command a pretty big contract for whichever team is to sign him, so it could very well be a situation similar to CC Sabathia. Bedard is there for one reason and one reason only, to reach the postseason and beyond. If the Brewers fail to reach the postseason, they will have possibly given up prospects with nothing to show for it. If Bedard were to come and be successful, he won't be getting a CC like contract though, so if the Brewers were serious about the $100 million contract offered to CC, a contract smaller than that, I would have to assume, might not be unreasonable for Doug Melvin to negotiate. As I said before, in a couple year's time Bill Hall and Jeff Suppan's contracts will likely be off the books, perhaps giving Melvin wiggle room to make a deal.

Aside from contract, of course are the prospects. Mariner's GM, Jack Z. knows the Brewer's farm system well, as he should, he created it. As talked about, Manny Parra could be a likely target, and I am sure Jack would love to have Escobar on his team as well. However, I think the Brewers might be able to work a deal for Bedard without moving Escobar. Probably younger arms again as what team wouldn't want as much pitching as they can get, once again Jeffress' name has to come to mind. Another name I mentioned before, Taylor Green, would probably be mentioned in any talks. Then with Jack knowing the talent so well, might try to make a deal to capture some of the low A talent, with Brett Lawrie moving to 2B position as well as Cutter Dykstra, Jack might seize the opportunity to try and get Dykstra to Seattle, assuming Lawrie is off limits.

So, assuming Gamel and Lawrie are untouchable, and if the Brewers want to try and keep Escobar, it would probably take 3 players. Assuming the Mariners would take an arm like Parra's, look for Green and another pitcher probably one with a little less buzz than a Jeffress. If the Mariners like their up and coming pitchers and don't want Parra, then once again Escobar's name would have to be mentioned (maybe Escobar, Dykstra, and a low level pitcher).

Trading for a free agent can be a gamble, but if the Brewers can (and I think they could) make a serious run at resigning Bedard, then this is definitely a trade I think most Brewer fans would like to see happen.

Next possibility - Cliff Lee